For the judge, in 30 seconds
Bull case. If Intents holds about $10B a month at about 7 bp, yearly buybacks would be about $84M, or 114% of HSP-029 issuance at the frozen $3.51 price.
What must be true: issuance cap
HSP-029, 1.6% end state
Current cap is 2.5%. The proposal was approved on 2 Nov 2026. The manual swap is still pending.
What must be true: take rate
4.88 bp on 13 Nov, vs about 7 bp
What must be true: volume
$3.77B in 30 days on 13 Nov, vs about $10B a month
Kill rules. All four quantitative rules fired in the first half of 2026: volume below $8B a quarter, capture below 20%, take rate below 3 bp, and coverage below 15%. Coverage gets no reset. Q3 cleared the first three; coverage did not.
NEAR Intents is a growing settlement product whose fees now buy back about 19% of new issuance on the best recent 30 days, up from 5-11% on full quarters in 2026. The token case is still unproven: all four kill rules fired in the first half of 2026, and Q4 must clear 15% coverage at a frozen $3.51 price.